Combined forecasts to improve Survey of Profession Forecasters predictions for quarterly inflation in the U.S.A.
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Using forecasts of forecasters to forecast
Quantification techniques are popular methods in empirical research for aggregating the qualitative predictions at the microlevel into a single figure. In this paper, we analyze the forecasting performance of various methods that are based on the qualitative predictions of financial experts for major financial variables and macroeconomic aggregates. Based on the Centre of European Economic Rese...
متن کاملWhat affects the predictions of private forecasters? The role of central bank forecasts in Chile
This study utilizes Chilean data for analyzing the factors that affect the expectations of private forecasters (PFs), and, in particular, for determining whether they are influenced by the Central Bank of Chile’s (CBC’s) forecasts. Robust evidence suggests that short-term inflation expectations are influenced directly by the CBC’s forecasts, while the evidence is weaker for medium-term predicti...
متن کاملConstructing bivariate density forecasts of inflation and output growth using copulae: modelling dependence using the Survey of Professional Forecasters
Traditionally density forecasts of inflation and output growth are published separately without any obvious indication of how they are related. But ‘flexible’ inflation targeting motivates concern with the underlying bivariate density forecast. This paper, therefore, suggests use of copulae to model the dependence between known marginal density forecasts. Estimated copula functions are used to ...
متن کاملMacroeconomic forecasts and microeconomic forecasters
In the presence of principal-agent problems, published macroeconomic forecasts by professional economists may not measure expectations. Forecasters may use their forecasts in order to manipulate beliefs about their ability. I test a cross-sectional implication of models of reputation and information-revelation. I find that as forecasters become older and more established, they produce more radi...
متن کاملstudy of cohesive devices in the textbook of english for the students of apsychology by rastegarpour
this study investigates the cohesive devices used in the textbook of english for the students of psychology. the research questions and hypotheses in the present study are based on what frequency and distribution of grammatical and lexical cohesive devices are. then, to answer the questions all grammatical and lexical cohesive devices in reading comprehension passages from 6 units of 21units th...
ذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja
سال: 2017
ISSN: 1331-677X,1848-9664
DOI: 10.1080/1331677x.2017.1314826